Home Insurance Premium Growth Is Slowing to 4%. It's Still Up 46% Since 2021

Home insurance premiums are projected to rise just 4% this year, a big slowdown from last year's jump. Read that as relief and you're missing what already happened to get here.

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This is what mobilization looks like

“In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way.” -Franklin D Roosevelt.

Over the past year, the Trump administration has executed a series of moves that – taken in isolation – look reckless, if not downright crazy.

Threatening to invade Greenland. Planning to annex Canada. Striking Venezuela. Seizing Russian oil tankers in international waters. Signing a relentless torrent of executive orders. Bombing Tehran.

The financial press has covered each event as if it exists in a vacuum.

They are wrong.

Every single one of these strange moves is closely connected.

And flows from a single, coordinated strategy – a 29-page National Security Strategy document published by the White House, laying out what we’re calling the “Donroe Doctrine”.

Trump's corollary to the original Monroe Doctrine of 1823.

The Monroe Doctrine was simple: keep European powers out of the Western Hemisphere. It defined America's sphere of influence for nearly two centuries.

The Donroe Doctrine updates that mission for the 21st century. Its target is not European colonialism – it is China.

And it changes everything about how you invest your money from here on out.

A Smaller Increase, on Top of Several Big Ones

The average annual home insurance premium is projected to rise about 4% in 2026, to roughly $3,057, following a 12% jump in 2025. On its own, 4% sounds like things are finally cooling off. It's the fifth straight year premiums have climbed, and since 2021, the cumulative increase adds up to 46%, roughly three times the pace of general inflation over that same stretch. A smaller percentage this year is still stacked on top of a base that's already grown far faster than most household budgets have.

Some States Got Hit Much Harder, All at Once

The national average hides how uneven this has been. In 2025 alone, premiums jumped more than 20% in six states, including Minnesota, up 34%, Colorado, up 33%, Nebraska, up 25%, and Oklahoma, up 24%. If you live in one of the states absorbing those increases, a modest-sounding 4% national average number understates what's actually showing up on your renewal notice.

The Cause Isn't Going Away

These increases are being driven by two things that aren't temporary: more frequent and expensive extreme weather losses, and higher costs to rebuild homes after damage occurs. A Treasury Department review of more than 243 million home policies found that communities routinely hit by severe weather are already paying substantially more than communities that aren't. Neither driver, worsening weather patterns or construction costs, points toward a quick reversal.

Final Take

A survey from earlier this year found 42% of homeowners say their insurance costs have gone up "a lot." A slowing growth rate this year doesn't undo that. If your premium already climbed sharply over the past few years, a smaller increase in 2026 means the bill keeps getting bigger, just a little more slowly than before. That's worth knowing before you file this year's renewal notice under good news.

Written by Deniss Slinkins
Millionaire Core