New car prices are up less than half a percent this year. Used car prices are actually down. By the usual logic, that should make car ownership easier right now. Auto loan delinquencies just hit their worst level in 32 years, so something else is going on.
Jensen’s weirdest, wildest prediction yet
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Sticker Prices Cooled Off
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, new vehicle prices rose just 0.2% year over year through June, while used car and truck prices actually fell 2.0% over the same period. After years of sticker shock, the price side of the car-buying equation has genuinely calmed down. If prices were the whole story, this would read as good news for anyone shopping for a car.
The Debt Behind Those Cars Is a Different Story
Total outstanding auto loan debt in the US has climbed to a record $1.68 trillion. Subprime borrowers, those with weaker credit, are now showing 60-plus day delinquency rates at their highest level in 32 years, the worst since January 1994. The New York Fed puts it more broadly too: 5.6% of all outstanding auto debt was 90 or more days past due in the first quarter of this year, up over 12% from a year earlier. Calm prices and rising defaults are showing up in the same market at the same time.
It's Not Hitting Everyone the Same Way
Prime borrowers, people with strong credit, are doing just fine. Their delinquency rates have stayed healthy and stable through this entire stretch. The stress is concentrated almost entirely among subprime borrowers, who have now spent close to four straight years in what amounts to the worst auto credit conditions in three decades. Meanwhile, monthly payments keep climbing regardless of credit tier: the average new vehicle payment is now around $770 a month, up nearly 3% from a year earlier, with used and leased vehicle payments rising too. Prices flattened. Payments didn't.
Final Take
A car market with flat prices and record delinquencies isn't a contradiction once you separate who's actually struggling. If your own credit and budget are solid, this looks like a fine time to buy, with prices cooler than they've been in years. If you're closer to the subprime end of the market, the sticker price was never really the problem, the monthly payment and what happens if you miss one is. Those two experiences of the same car market are getting further apart, not closer together.
Written by Deniss Slinkins
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